The Eclectic One

…Because labels are a poor substitute for thinking

Consequences of the invasion of Georgia

Posted by Bill Nance on August 21, 2008

Paul Berman has an extremely thoughtful article on Georgia today over at The New Republic, in which he predicts rather dire consequences from the Georgian crisis.

The juice:

“…the vast and irreversible effects of the invasion of Georgia will be felt everywhere in the ex-Soviet bloc, and not just there. Each of the ex-bloc countries has what could be called its own pro-Russia party, which is hostile to the democratic revolutions.”

“…The strengthening of the pro-Russia parties will be met, at first, by an increased hostility from the democratic parties–the genuinely democratic parties, and some of the not-so-genuine ones. Political tensions are therefore bound to rise all across the region, not just between the ex-bloc countries and Russia, but within each of the ex-bloc countries. A rise in domestic tensions will have the unavoidable effect, however, of yet again increasing, in the short term, the credibility of threats from the pro-Russia parties. The pressure on the democratic parties to relinquish their hostility to the pro-Russia parties will therefore grow in the months to come. And a degree of power will shift to the pro-Russia parties on a regional and not just a local level.

Poland will be an exception to this development, if only because Poland appears to have made a fundamental national choice to go down fighting, rather than submit yet again to Russia. But Polish defiance has merely meant that Poland, instead of undergoing the political tensions that are about to embroil the other countries, has leapfrogged to a still higher stage of tension, which is military. The Poles have already found themselves being threatened overtly with military assault and even nuclear attack by top figures of the Russian military–a shocking development.”

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2 Responses to “Consequences of the invasion of Georgia”

  1. Agents of Goldstein said

    Thanks for posting this.

    One of the essential problems of Eastern European politics is the utter disconnect between its West-leaning intellectuals and the rest of the population. Unless personally embittered toward Russia for some past crime against their family, career, etc., many citizens of those countries contiguous to Russia feel more of a cultural affinity to their former rulers than to anyplace in the West.

  2. morris108 said

    Todays telephone interviews in Georgia (MP3)

    http://morris108.wordpress.com/2008/08/21/mp3-telephone-interview-with-assistant-to-the-ceo-of-poti-port-georgia-the-russians-are-digging-entrenchments-and-a-checkpoint-to-the-entrance-21-august-08/
    and
    http://morris108.wordpress.com/2008/08/21/telephone-interview-mp3-with-resident-of-georgias-capital-tibilisi-21-august/

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